Advancedwarfare.co.uk have made this interesting infograph showing the chances of receiving Supply Drops in Advanced Warfare. It shows the chances of receiving the different types of Variants (Enlisted, Professional and Elite).
According to them they analysed over 110 different Supply Drops containing over 240 items. Half way through their sampling they predicted the outcome of the last few Supply Drops and they where right. Have a look for yourself!
There is also a few theories going around about how one can receive Supply Drops. Firstly we know that Supply Drops can come from Challenges completed and in game time played. The average player receives a Supply Drop every 45 minutes and it’s normally triggered upon death. According to Drift0r and a post on Reddit a lot of people are suggesting that it is a player’s Score Per Minute (SPM) that determines how often you will receive them.
In other words, the lower your SPM that more you will receive. This could definitely be plausible because someone who isn’t that good at the game probably needs more help and Supply Drops would help them by giving them new/better weapons. Nobody knows 100% and nobody will know 100% unless SHGames decide to tell us. What is your experience?